These so-called 'negative crack spreads' have huge implications for India, which imports crude oil and exports petroleum products. Brent crude oil, the international oil benchmark, was trading at $62 a barrel on Thursday.
India and Russia always stood "shoulder-to-shoulder" even in the most difficult situations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, against the backdrop of possibly the worst phase in New Delhi's ties with the US in over two decades.
From the Sensex firms, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank and Reliance Industries were among the laggards. However, NTPC, Titan, Trent, ITC and Bajaj Finserv were the gainers.
Most of India's oil supplies are expected to stay safe because of the country's good relations with both Russia and Iran. That would take care of over a third of India's supplies.
India's exports registered a steepest decline in 13-month falling 9.3 per cent in August to $34.71 billion due to global economic uncertainties, while the trade deficit soared to a 10-month of $29.65 billion. According to the government data released on Tuesday, imports increased by 3.3 per cent to $64.36 billion, which is a record high, due to a significant jump in the inbound shipments of gold and silver.
A government official said out that with hardly any economic activity, an immediate duty hike will not be productive and could be announced once the lockdown eases and demand revives.
Exports contracted by 2.6 per cent to $34.47 billion in September even as the country's merchandise trade deficit narrows to $19.37 billion during the month under review, according to the government data released on Friday. Easing commodity prices helped in cutting down the country's import bill by 15 per cent to $53.84 billion in September, the 10th consecutive month of decline. During April-September this fiscal, exports contracted by 8.77 per cent to $211.4 billion.
Refuting all the allegations, IOC has clarified that no monopolistic situation exists in supply and pricing of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to airlines.
Most pharma shares dropped, dragging the BSE Healthcare index down by 2.14 per cent after Trump's move to impose 100 per cent import tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs from October 1. Wockhardt shares tanked 9.4 per cent.
Worries related to the Iran-Israel conflict, quarterly earnings and foreign investors' trading activity are the key factors that would dictate stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, trends in Brent crude oil and movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be crucial factors. This week will be crucial for the market amid ongoing worries about the conflict between Iran and Israel, said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Re-instatement of 5% custom duty on crude imports will help.
'India did not surrender. That was why he wanted to pressurise India by this 25% tariffs.'
Urals and Sokol accounted for every 4 out of 5 barrels of Russian supplies to India last year.
RIL's predominantly gas rich KG-D6 block, off the east coast, has also helped boost availability of the environment friendly fuel in the country.
India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has called on Europe to display sensitivity and mutuality of interest for deeper ties with India, stating that New Delhi seeks partners, not "preachers." Jaishankar emphasized the importance of "Russia realism" in India's foreign policy, highlighting the natural complementarity between India and Russia as a resource provider and consumer. He criticized attempts by the West to address the Russia-Ukraine conflict without Russia's involvement, arguing it "challenged the basics of realism." Jaishankar also stressed the importance of finding common ground with the US, suggesting that focusing on mutuality of interest rather than ideological differences is key to successful engagement.
The oil sector has been quite lucky for the Modi government. It has often provided an opportunity to the government to mend its finances, notes A K Bhattacharya.
India's merchandise exports rose by 9.1 per cent to $38.13 billion in May even as the trade deficit widened to a seven-month high of $23.78 billion during the month, according to government data. Healthy growth in sectors, such as engineering, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and plastics helped register growth in exports despite global economic uncertainties.
'The favourable rupee-dollar exchange rate, there are opportunities we can tap.'
'While the President has been critical of India, he has gone out of his way to compliment PM Modi. They have an incredible relationship.'
Import of sensitive items increased by 52 per cent during April-September 2003 to Rs 9,871 crore (Rs 98.7i billion) as compared to Rs 6,482 crore (Rs 64.82 billion) in the corresponding period the previous year.
At BSE, 1,799 scrips declined and 714 advanced, while 184 remained unchanged.
'We need to be very vigilant as we are passing through some fraught times.'
Oil prices have declined by more than 60 per cent since January with benchmark crude falling well below $30 per barrel, driven by an acute oil demand decline caused by the coronavirus and a lack of production cuts by OPEC and other oil producing countries.
Price of international crude oil - the raw material for making petrol and diesel - dropped to a three-year low before marginally recovering but a revision in domestic petrol and diesel rates is likely only if lower rates are sustained, industry sources and officials said. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel on Tuesday - the first time since December 2021 - but gained thereafter after Hurricane Francine hit crude supply in the Gulf of Mexico. Brent rose above $71 a barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade near $68.
Imports rise at highest pace in more than 2 years as crude oil price spikes.
The revenue loss, termed as under-recovery by oil firms, will be the highest-ever.
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
'Given the lag in transmission, further softening of lending rates may happen in the coming months.'
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
India's demand for petroleum products like petrol and diesel will grow by 7.73 per cent in 2022, the fastest pace in the world, an OPEC report said. India's demand for oil products is projected to rise from 4.77 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 5.14 million bpd in 2022, OPEC said in its monthly oil report. The growth in demand is the fastest in the world ahead of 1.23 per cent of China, 3.39 per cent of the US and 4.62 per cent of Europe.
India, the world's third-largest energy consumer and importer, on Wednesday warned of high oil prices hurting the nascent and fragile global economic recovery and floated an idea of long-term supply contracts that provide predictable and stable pricing. Speaking at the India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said there was a mismatch between demand for oil and the supplies producers such as OPEC+ were making and there was a case for raising the production. The world, he said, needs "predictable, stable and affordable" prices for it to recover back to pre-pandemic levels.
An Indian official team is likely to visit Washington next week to iron out differences on certain issues before formally launching negotiations for the proposed India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA), an official said. The visit, which comes within weeks of a high-level US team visiting India, indicates that the talks for the BTA are gaining momentum.
'Just as we cannot surrender the interests of our farmers and dairy industry, Trump is also looking for markets for the produce of the farmers in the Midwest, which are his support base.'
'Things may get much worse before they get better,' predicts Ajay Chhibber.
The official said there are both challenges and opportunities for India as many of its competitor countries in exports, such as China Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Thailand, face higher duties.
Stock markets would take cues from the upcoming macroeconomic data announcements and global trends besides keeping a watch on the trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The last batch of the ongoing earnings calendar would trigger stock-specific action, traders said. "This week, we have to deal with macroeconomic data on both the domestic and global front.
India's exports contracted 12.2 per cent to $34.48 billion in December 2022, mainly due to global headwinds, and the trade deficit widened to $23.76 billion during the same period, according to official data released on Monday. Imports in December 2022 also declined 3.5 per cent to $58.24 billion as against $60.33 billion in the year-ago period. In December 2021, exports stood at $39.27 billion and the trade deficit was at $21.06 billion.
India is estimated to spend $1.36 billion more a year for every one dollar a barrel increase in crude oil prices, says Subhayan Chakraborty.
